Nov 14
Did We Reach Bottom?
November 13th may be the date the bear market ended. Let’s hope so as the last year has been a painful period. The S&P hit a 52-week low so we need to see if this level will be retested over the next few weeks. The NASDAQ is approximately 150 points off its 52-week low and the DJI nearly tested its 52-week low yesterday.
Photograph: Government building in Budapest, Hungary
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November 14th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Lowell,
I just read the Lewis article. That gives me the impression there remains much unwinding and “the fat lady has yet to sing”:^( I bought some TIP yesterday in two porfolios, thanks for the suggestion. I’ve also added some purchases (from MMF) to some allocation rebalancing in my largest passive portfolio and made allocation adjustments based on adding 10% bond (TIP) to the allocations. I still agree with the concept that SS + pensions represent a “bond allocation”, but things have been pretty scary so I’m going more conservative. Fortunately I haven’t needed to extract any money from my tax deferred accounts but that situation should change within a year or two.
Bob Warasila
November 14th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Bob,
We may see the 7,000 on the DOW tested before this is all over. I too picked up more TIP for portfolios as well. I reported on one over on Premium Content this morning.
I’ve only extracted from tax deferred accounts because of minimum requirements. Those withdrawals will be lower next year due to this bear market.
Lowell
November 14th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Lowell,
I think the post 9/11 lows were hit in July 2002 and tested in October 2002 at about 10% below where we are now on the S&P and Dow. Maybe 7500 on the Dow and 770 on the S&P is where we should be looking for the “real” bottom. Those would be about a 50% correction.
Bob
November 15th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Bob,
If we do not hit the levels you mention within the first six months of the Obama administration, I doubt we will retest these levels for many years.
Lowell