Dec 30 2008
Grantham’s Asset Class Outlooks
Several days ago I mentioned Grantham’s projections on this blog. Geoff Considine, author of Quantext Portfolio Planner (QPP), picked up my comment and followed up with a detailed analysis all readers of this blog will want to digest. Here is the link to his article on Seeking Alpha.
As I mentioned here or on the Premium Content side of this blog, when I first began working with the concepts of asset allocation, I relied on the writings of William Bernstein, Roger Gibson, Larry Swedroe, Richard Ferri and others for their asset allocation plans. More recently, I came across Mark Hebner’s outstanding book. All these books can be found by searching on the author right here on this blog.
What was missing from all asset allocation plans found in these sources was forward looking information, correlations, risk factors, and portfolio diversification, particularly when one was interested in testing different asset classes or individual stocks. Along comes Quantext Portfolio Planner, an Excel program that appears to solve a lot of problems I was having with my former portfolio construction methods.
Instead of relying on gut feelings, and those worked out quite will over the last ten years, I am now able to build portfolios that have a higher probability of success. Take the time to carefully read the referenced Considine article above. I think you will also be impressed.
I’ve set up QPP plans for the seven portfolios tracked over on Premium Content (PC). Only two of the seven portfolios are fully populated so there is flexibility to follow the QPP guidelines for the remaining five portfolios. PC readers are watching these “real dollar” portfolios in action as all transactions are transparent. Portfolio tracking spreadsheets are available for all seven portfolios.
Lowell Herr
Photograph: Castle ruin between Vienna and Bratislava.
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